After being badly burnt in March from crude oil trading, I gained enough confidence to start trading again in September to November.
Before talking about my recent trades, I’d like to mention how I badly missed the July downtrend. From the March debacle to June, oil was basically a boring market with the contracts range bound. WTI was hovering between $58-$64 and I wasn’t sure where the market was going though fundamentally oil was in bad shape.
On July 6, oil crashed and kept falling till it reached a low of $37.50 or so in mid-late August. That was a move of more than $10! I was really kicking myself because I had previously felt that the market would fall when the BHI Rig Count report showed an increase in rigs, which it did the Friday before. The second reason for the crash was the Greece debt turmoil and later the China currency turmoil. I had second guessed myself when I saw that the rig count report showed an increase in rigs and the market didn’t move lower. As a result of my thumb sucking, I missed the move.
Eager not to repeat the mistake, I started shorting oil in the $50-$52 range in September and covering back my shorts at the $45-$46 level. This kept me busy until early November when oil fell from around $50 to $50. I did catch this move through scale up selling initially and scale down buying later. This was prudent and I made a small sum. I also bearspreaded Jan 16 v June 16 and made a small sum there.
Currently, I do not have a position in oil any longer and am waiting for oil to recover above $45 or so before starting to short again.